Regional Express (Rex) airline is monitoring passenger demand on the direct Bathurst-Sydney flights to and from Bathurst Airport, and is said to be considering running some services via Orange.

The possibility of this Sydney-Bathurst-Orange route has emerged in talks between the airline and the Bathurst Business Chamber and regional council.

The airline launched the passenger monitoring program in June, saying the direct Bathurst-Sydney route may not be “sustainable” due to falling demand. It says there’s no date set as yet for a decision on the service.

Rex runs a daily service to Bathurst, carrying 24,000 passengers a year on 8,000 flights.

Over the past 10 years the airport has been upgraded with a new passenger terminal, security fencing, a new taxiway and improved runway lighting.

But the air traffic volume pales significantly against Orange Airport’s 21,000 flight movements annually, with current expansion plans allowing for 50,000 flights in and out in the future. Then again, Bathurst doesn’t have a massive gold mine right next door and streams of miners from Sydney, Brisbane and Western Australia flying in and out each day.

SEVERE CUTBACKS NOT ON TALKS AGENDA

Bathurst’s business and community leaders are understandably worried about the airline’s review, but those in on the negotiations with Rex don’t think it’ll lead to severe cutbacks.

Bathurst Business Chamber president Tammy Middleton, who’s had direct talks with Rex executives says her own impression is that “they don’t anticipate a cut in services.

“But we understand that in the short term they may have to run some flights via Orange,” she says.

“I’m convinced the airline is doing everything possible to accommodate Bathurst’s air service needs. It’s taken them years to build up the service between Bathurst and Sydney, and if they do reduce flights it’ll only be for the short term while they figure out the best option.”

Orange News Now contacted Regional Express to try to find out how severe the “falling demand” on the  Sydney-Bathurst flights is, but could only get the word “challenged” from the company’s media officer before insisting “we have nothing more to say beyond our media release in June.”

And it’s there that the full picture emerges of the challenge that Rex faces – a general “slight weakening” of passenger numbers along with declining profits because of rising fuel costs and the removal of tax benefits under the federal government’s one-off Investment Allowance that was brought in to fight the global financial crisis.

According to latest figures, Regional Express’s group profit after tax slumped by 28.5 percent to $24.6 million in the 2010-11 financial year, with executive chairman Lim Kim Hai citing “fuel prices spiralling out of control … further compounded by several climactic catastrophes ranging from cyclones and floods to volcanic ash which saw an unprecedented voluntary shutdown of large areas of airspace over several days in South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales.”

If that wasn’t bad enough, the airline expects its profit before tax to drop by 10 percent this year, down to “the region of $23.5 million.”

SERVICES THREATENED BY “CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT”

According to Mr Lim, it’s this “challenging operating environment” – with a 20 percent hike in fuel costs, plus the removal of federal tax benefits – which has triggered the network review this year that’s “identified a number of routes that may not be sustainable should the situation degrade further.”

Sydney-Bathurst is one of them. The others are Sydney flights to and from Taree, Grafton and Moruya and Melbourne to Griffith, King Island and Merimbula.

There’s a saying that’s been going around for some time that Bathurst is “getting closer and closer to Sydney,” what with the capital’s inexorable march toward the west and Bathurst’s improved road access to the big smoke via the upgraded highway over the mountains through Bathurst.

But a lot of local people will say that’s no reason for any real cutback in the Regional Express service to and from Sydney.

Bathurst Aero Club president, Ed Collins, for instance, notes “there always seems to be a load of people boarding Rex at the airport,” but then recalls that on a trip he did to Sydney a week ago “the plane was half full both ways.”

Like most Bathurst people he sees the Rex service as essential for business people, particularly, who need to get down to Sydney and back in one day.

Going by road, even with the highway through Katoomba, wastes a lot of time, he says. “The highway’s great, when they finally finish it. At the moment it’s roadworks and stops a lot of the way.”